Tag Archives: Tablets

The Third Wave Opportunity on Mobile

19 Aug

There’s really two sets of major players on mobile.  The first is historically desktop-focused companies where their pageviews started on the desktop and are now shifting rapidly to mobile as the share of time spent by users switches from the desktop to smartphones and tablets.  This includes services like Groupon, Google Maps, Yelp, Dropbox, Facebook, Twitter, eBay, Fab, Digg, Huffington Post, Gmail, Linkedin, Amazon, Skype, Salesforce, Kayak, TripAdvisor, and a whole host of others.  The second group is companies who started on mobile and don’t make sense without it.  Evernote, Uber, Prezi, WhatsApp, most mobile games, Roambi in the enterprise, and others are in this category.   

What’s interesting is that in terms of pure reach, the traditional desktop companies are really dominating.  The first wave of adoption of mobile apps has benefited strong desktop brands whose services make as much sense or are stronger even on mobile.   Check any smartphone n the US and you’re likely to see some mix of Facebook, Yelp, Google Maps, and Twitter apps to name a few.  Perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising since these are some of the most popular services globally.  And as mobile increases as a percentage of online time spent and as total hours spent online increases because of mobile, you’d expect these services to benefit.   

The next wave of adoption is of mobile-first services.  For some companies like Evernote and Whatsapp, the boat has already sailed in this regard.  For others, there’s huge headroom for adoption.  I’d also argue that there should be a whole slew of services built from the ground up for mobile that we haven’t seen yet.  This is the “third wave opportunity” for mobile apps.  

Gaming and Messaging have been the two killer apps on the smartphone, the former in terms of total time spent and the latter in terms of frequency.  After these, your traditional desktop services like Gmail and Facebook consume a ton of time.  And then you have your set of mobile-first services like Uber that aren’t in the Gaming or Messaging categories.  That last category is growing rapidly and should see many new players emerge.  

There are new ways of re-imagining everything we do on the Web, but for mobile.  For instance, Prezi is re-imagining how you create and view PowerPoint-like presentations on the iPad, and Roambi is reimagining Business Intelligence for mobile. 

In particular, I think there’s a whole host of enterprise applications that can be rebuilt from the ground up for smartphones and/or tablets.  CRM, corporate chat clients, time sheeting, meeting management, conference dial in, and Excel/spreadsheeting are a few examples of generalized apps that need to be rebuilt for smartphones and tablets.  

I also think there’s a whole slew of vertical-specific apps that are ripe for the taking.  Hospital management, big law firms, personal financial advising, hotel management, auto dealers, financial traders, and many other areas have a need for specialized mobile apps.  

In some cases, the incumbent, traditional desktop players will get their act together when it comes to mobile and continue to dominate.  In other areas, these players will either be too late to the opportunity or might lack the ability to, whether because of organization issues, a lack of talent, or something else.  

If I was investing in or looking to start  a company, I’d be looking for these third wave opportunities, especially in areas where the incumbents aren’t equipped to capitalize on the opportunity.  

Driven by Android, the Tablet Market in India is Exploding

25 Jun

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I wrote a post last week on what’s driving smartphone/Android adoption in emerging markets.  I wrote mostly about smartphones and largely ignored the tablet market.

And like clockwork, IDC just released a report on the tablet market in India.  In short:

  • The tablet market is booming as “shipments soared to 2.66 million in 2012, a mammoth 901 percent year-on-year growth from 2011…”;
  • It’s dominated by Android with Apple having <10% of the market;
  • Low-cost (<$250), 7″ tablets are vast majority of share;
  • Local players like Micromax and Karbonn and cheap Chinese imports are winning even though Samsung has the largest market share.  Note: local players still use contract manufacturing in China, but they’re Indian brands.

This article has a nice rundown of the report and quick summary from IDC here.

I wouldn’t expect any major changes to Android/non-Apple dominance in the near future.  Apple simply can’t compete on price in a market where most consumers can’t shell out hundreds of dollars for even an iPad mini.

Also, as with the smartphone market, I’d expect spending on cheap Android tablets in India to continue to grow rapidly.  Prices will continue to decline, there’s several government initiatives aimed at growing tablet access, and you have Reliance’s 4G rollout coming soon.  Expect Reliance 4G rollout to pair a cheap Android tablet with affordable data plans and bundled content/services.

The next really interesting question that needs to be answered is what killer apps and services are going to be built on top of all of these tablet and smartphone devices, especially in India.  And can they figure out a way to make money in a market where non-text, non-search mobile advertising is extremely low in $ terms and where consumers willingness to spend is low.

I think WhatsApp is the first app to really take advantage of the Android adoption trend in emerging markets like India, and it’s also showing the way in terms of how to monetize price-sensitive users at scale.  More on this soon.

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